Bitcoin has strong relations with its volatility counterpart; after the flagship crypto token broke through resistance, Amazon listed positive news. Negative news has historically impacted Bitcoin far worse than any positive speculation, as Bitcoin crossed the “death cross” once before, also breaking the $30,000 mark. Following a string of positive news pieces that flipped market sentiment, Bitcoin is now poised to reach new bullish indicators.
The Story of the Golden Cross
The Golden Cross is completed when Bitcoin’s 50 EMA and 200 EMA cross. The pattern is a bullish indicator as the short-term moving average passes the long-term moving average, potentially promising a long-term positive rally. However, as the 2021 Death Cross illustrates, the market did not suffer excessively.
Lark David highlights that the market is getting closer to a golden cross, while popular Twitter trader Rekt Capital similarly emphasized, on August 8th, that Bitcoin passing and sustaining past the $45,000 mark would lead to a new golden cross. Moreover, following Bitcoin’s death cross, Rekt Capital suggested that the next golden cross will occur within 60-90 days by “by late August or early September.”
Glassnode has underlined the possibility of a new accumulation phase as Bitcoin reached a new floor after months of trading sideways. Data indicates that older coins are not being spent, while newer coins are being purchased and held in “cold storage.” Additional bullish indicators add to this positive market rhetoric as the miner hashrate is expected to perform a bullish cross-over, which suggests that the global hashrate is recovering.
While both gold and death crosses are strong trading indicators of positive and negative price movements, the increase in market liquidity has lowered the general impact that trading events have on the price. Historically, death crosses have impacted Bitcoin in 2014 with -71%, and again in 2018 with price retracement of -65%, while in 2020, the price did not suffer any significant changes.
Divergences between death and golden crosses have been between 60 to 562 days. Now Bitcoin has experienced one of its shortest periods, which could mean that the price will be less likely to move upward, and will have an adverse effect. Analysts argue that June’s death cross failed to heavily impact the price, and the same could happen when the flipside occurs.
The Fear and Greed Index outlines that market sentiment has rapidly turned towards Greed as Bitcoin rallied by more than 20% in the past two weeks. Miners have additionally continued their bullish projections around Bitcoin, as the supply ratio decreased to a 26-month low, reflecting that miners are reluctant to sell at the current price, instead predicting a possible price shift.
While Amazon’s crypto acceptance certainly helped Bitcoin nudge, possible adverse events such as the Infrastructure Bill could yet adversely impact Bitcoin’s upward trend. Yet, the news about cryptocurrency’s “controversial language” remaining in the bill has not moved BTC’s price. Moreover, Bitcoin was also not impacted by the industry’s biggest hack, which saw the Poly Network lose more than $610 million in funds, all of which point to Bitcoin buyers strongly eyeing a favorable Bitcoin quarter.
An improvement in Bitcoin’s value reinforces the likelihood that institutional and retail investors become confident and bullish, which, as has been seen time and time again, directly affects the performance of the entire market.