After Bitcoin (BTC) hit a yearly excessive of $19,501 on Jan. 13, the place is it headed subsequent?

Bitcoin is at present witnessing an uptick in bullish momentum after the positively perceived Client Worth Index (CPI) report was adopted by a robust rally throughout the crypto market.

The latest rally in Bitcoin is creating elevated quantity ranges and better social engagement on whether or not the worth is in a breakout of fakeout mode.

Is the Bitcoin bear market over?

Whereas the market continues to be technically in a bear market in comparison with final week, investor sentiment is bettering. In response to the Worry and Greed Index, a crypto-specific metric that measures sentiment utilizing 5 weighted sources, traders’ emotions in regards to the market hit a month-to-month excessive.

Bitcoin value is now approaching the psychologically essential $20,000 degree and lots of analysts and merchants are issuing their ideas on the place BTC value might head subsequent.

Let’s discover just a few of those views.

Bitcoin buying and selling volumes stay a priority

Bitcoin value has but to get well from its pre-FTX ranges, however reached above $19,501 on Jan. 13 for the primary time since Nov. 8, 2022. Regardless of the power of the latest rally, some analysts imagine BTC value wants to succeed in $21,000 earlier than the present bullish development could be sustained.

In response to Glassnode evaluation,

“A renewed bullish development that began on January 1st drove bitcoin to the $18.6 – $18.9k degree, but a cross over to $19k is critical to assert a brand new buying and selling channel round $19-$21k. Resistance is predicted round these ranges as bitcoin faces a mid-term downward development. If the worth fails to interrupt over the development line, we count on a retrace towards the $16-$17k space.”

The shortage of buying and selling quantity round $18,000 reveals the weak spot within the present on-chain and centralized trade (CEX) exercise. The most important volumes and total exercise appear to encompass the $16,000 degree, suggesting that may be a extra stable ground than the present value vary. With much less quantity surrounding ranges increased than $20,000, Bitcoin’s rally could possibly be capped at $20,000.

Is it only a bear market rally?

Bitcoin continues to be going through headwinds together with large trade layoffs in a tightening macro economic system, Gemini and Genesis authorized points and the potential institution of a US Home crypto-focused subcommittee.

As well as, Bitcoin’s relative power index (RSI) is at present displaying BTC as overbought. In response to RSI evaluation, a pointy downtrend might type as the worth corrects.

The macro markets are additionally at main resistance ranges. America Greenback index (DXY) is at key assist which implies danger belongings like Bitcoin might begin to see a sell-off if the index recovers. Bitcoin stays correlated to equities and the SPX mini futures index can be displaying indicators of a pullback.

TraderSZ explains beneath:

$BTC – enormous resistance right here…dxy at key assist…ES trying prefer it might pullback abit, eth at macro mid vary…been up solely all week so might get some revenue taking/pullback….arrow can be my set off IF it follows plan pic.twitter.com/6JziAmBywH

— TraderSZ (@trader1sz) January 12, 2023

With Bitcoin traders taking income as urged by TraderSZ, it could be robust for BTC to succeed in increased ranges.

Historic evaluation factors to a brand new Bitcoin backside

Bitcoin is at present beneath its 200-week shifting common and in response to unbiased market analyst Rekt Capital, Bitcoin value might have already hit its macro backside in response to historic knowledge. Traditionally the “Dying Cross” degree reveals a $23,500 backside.

A number of months later and #BTC has dropped into the Macro Bottoming Space as dictated by historic $BTC Dying Cross value tendencies

In response to these rules, the overall Bottoming Out space begins from $23500 (inexperienced)#Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/85DjLHoZnD pic.twitter.com/iTbCV1CxG3

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) January 13, 2023

Whereas merchants and technical evaluation should not recognized for precisely predicting how lengthy a bull or bear market may final, unbiased market analyst HornHairs cited historic knowledge from 2015 to estimate how lengthy it can take for Bitcoin to hit a brand new all-time excessive.

The bull market from 2015 to 2017 lasted for 1064 days, matching with the 2018 to 2021 bull market which lasted the identical variety of days. If merchants match the bear market that adopted between 2017 to 2018 and 2021 to the present market, it might take 1,001 days till Bitcoin reaches a brand new all-time excessive.

$BTC #Bitcoin
2015-2017 bull market: 1064 days
2017-2018 bear market: 364 days

2018-2021 bull market: 1064 days
2021-*present* market low: 364 days

Days left till the highest if we simply carbon copy the cycle timeframe once more: 1001 days pic.twitter.com/KoNZxJRuy5

— HornHairs (@CryptoHornHairs) January 12, 2023

Regardless of the present situations and the power of the present value breakout, Bitcoin has confirmed many technical analysts unsuitable prior to now. Danger-averse merchants may contemplate retaining an eye fixed out for elevated buying and selling quantity at increased costs as an indicator of whether or not Bitcoin is lastly again in a bull market.

The views, ideas and opinions expressed listed here are the authors’ alone and don’t essentially mirror or symbolize the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.