Bitcoin (BTC) returned to $30,500 on Might 17 amid hopes {that a} retest of 2017 highs may very well be prevented.

$20,000 retest ‘extremely unlikely’

Knowledge from Cointelegraph Markets Professional and TradingView confirmed BTC/USD climbing after the each day near tentatively construct on $30,000.

Nonetheless, in a multi-day vary, the pair was but to determine on a significant upward or downward trajectory, whereas volatility ebbed into the brand new week.

Amid issues {that a} main retracementcould take it under final week’s ten-month lows, in style analyst Credible Crypto provided a extra optimistic various. Based mostly on historic norms, he argued on Twitter, thatBitcoin had little impetus to retest $20,000 or decrease.

“The argument for 13K-14K $BTC on the premise that previous main bear markets have led to 80% declines from the highest makes a significant assumption- that 65k was the cycle high,” he wrote.

“It’s the identical assumption individuals made at 30k in June ‘21 earlier than we rallied to a brand new ATH of 65K 3 months later.”

As Cointelegraph lately reported, contingency plans look like in place already for such an occasion, with MicroStrategy — the corporate with the most important company BTC treasury — even ready to purchase up provide to stem the autumn.

Requested whether or not BTC/USD may repeat the retracement from its 2019 highs close to $14,000 to the $3,600 ground through the March 2020 COVID-19 crash, Credible Crypto was simply as skeptical.

“Not anticipating that. Is it doable? Sure, however as I’ve stated beforehand a retest of prior cycle highs has by no means occurred before- so I discover it extremely unlikely,” he responded.

For Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, it was a query of the US greenback cooling its bull run versus different fiat currencies in an effort to give danger belongings some respiratory house.

The U.S. greenback index (DXY), he forecasted, ought to come down from its twenty-year highs of 105 factors.

“If I take a look at the present state of the $DXY, I believe we’ll observe by way of with this state of affairs. Assuming we’ll be seeing some corrective transfer, the highs have been swept for liquidity. Dropping 103.7 factors and I believe we’ll get extra downwards strain right here -> risk-on belongings up,” he tweeted on Might 16.

Sentiment echoes March 2020 aftermath

Market sentiment information in the meantime mirrored the bulk consensus throughout crypto — that something may now occur, with bias firmly skewed to the draw back.

First 7-week dropping streak in historical past ― 5 issues to know in Bitcoin this week

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a cross-market sentiment gauge, hit 8/100 on Might 17, its lowest worth since March 28, 2020 — two weeks after the Coronavirus lockdown-induced meltdown.

Then, as now, BTC/USD was already recovering from its lows. At $30,500, the pair was up 28% from the week prior.

The views and opinions expressed listed below are solely these of the creator and don’t essentially replicate the views of Cointelegraph.com. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger, it is best to conduct your individual analysis when making a call.