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📺 Choices Video 👉
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– TIMESTAMPS –
0:00 Intro
2:30 Why Bitcoin is Impacted
5:34 Potential Eventualities
9:52 Contested Election
12:36 What’s Probably?
15:35 The way to Hedge Your self
18:58 Ultimate Ideas
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⛓️ 🔗 Useful Hyperlinks & Sources 🔗 ⛓️
► Market Outcomes:
► Contested Election Dangers:
► Vix Actions:
► Elections & Inventory Returns:
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🤔 Why Bitcoin Might Transfer 🤔
Bitcoin has turn into more and more correlated with the fairness markets. It is because Bitcoin is increasinly been held by giant institutional buyers who view it as a part of their “danger on” portfolio. Which means that they’re more likely to be impacted by these strikes within the fairness markets.
Bitcoin used to haven’t any correlation with the fairness markets however over the previous 12 months, this has modified fairly a bit. Extra not too long ago, the 1 month correlation of Bitcoin with the fairness markets has been near 0.5 which implies a light optimistic correlation.
🗳 Potential Eventualities 🗳
There are a selection of potential outcomes that would occur because of this election. The republicans are typically considered as extra enterprise pleasant as they’ve favorable tax insurance policies that imply that the fairness markets can carry out properly.
The primary state of affairs is Trump wins the presidency and the Republicans are more likely to retain the Senate. This consequence is more likely to have the largest optimistic transfer within the inventory markets.
One other state of affairs is that Trump wins re-election however the Republicans lose the senate. So, whereas this will likely imply political impasse, it does imply that to get any form of laws handed, there should be compromise. That is more likely to be extra impartial for shares.
If there’s a clear sweep for the democrats and so they win presidency & the senate. If this was the result, they’re predicting a fall of between 5-10%.
😟 Contested Election 😟
Given the pandemic, a file variety of folks will probably be voting by mail. Which means that these have to be counted and so they may take time to rely.
There may be additionally the state of affairs in the place this election is actively contested which implies that it should go to the supreme courtroom. This occurred in 2000 with the Gore vs. Bush election. In the course of the first two weeks after the election, the Dow offered off over 5%.
If that is stretched out till January of subsequent 12 months then it may additional hurt the equities markets.
🤔 What’s Probably? 🤔
There are a selection of the way to get a way of what’s possible within the election. The most effective locations to get that is maybe on the betting markets.
Firstly, you possibly can check out Predictit. If we have a look over at their prediction map for the USA, you possibly can see that Biden has the sting. His “inventory” is buying and selling at 59 cents vs. Trump’s 45 cents.
You too can take a little bit of a better look into the senate race over right here. Equally, the democrats have a lead right here with their share at 58 cents vs the republicans at 43.
You too can have a look at the election map over at smarkets.com. They’ve the chance of a Biden win at 58% and a Trump win of 41%.
💸 Potential Alternatives 💸
At the moment, the S&P500 implied volatility index (the VIX) has been rising as buyers have been getting nervous concerning the affect of the election on the fairness markets. Which means that the fee to hedge in opposition to these dangers has gone up.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin choice implied vol is close to file lows. Which means that buyers within the Bitcoin market should not fearing the result of the election as a lot as these within the fairness markets. This doesn’t make that a lot sense particularly provided that they’ve this excessive correlation. You need to contemplate shopping for some December Bitcoin choices.
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📜 Disclaimer 📜
The data contained herein is for informational functions solely. Nothing herein shall be construed to be monetary authorized or tax recommendation. The content material of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who shouldn’t be a licensed monetary advisor or registered funding advisor. Buying and selling Foreign exchange, cryptocurrencies and CFDs poses appreciable danger of loss. The speaker doesn’t assure any explicit consequence.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #election #Buying and selling #BTC #choices #biden #trump
Source: Coin Bureau
31 Responses
Glad you guys are liking the vid! Clearly, I did not anticipate Trump getting Covid but here we are 🤷🏼♂️ as you guys can see, the moment this happened Bitcoin took a plunge. Further proves my point that it is tied to global macro factors. If you guys want to keep up to date with my thoughts on the market, jump into my telegram channel: https://t.me/cbinsider
"Polls are for strippers" — classic, classic Bureau. Not my biggest take-away from another golden episode, but a good-un.
great video thanks!!
The constitution says election day not election week or election month. November 3rd is election day. Counting after election day is unconstitutional no supreme court would vote for it.
Lol to be honest guy I find it very difficult to listen to you rant about crypto, but I value your opinion so I force myself to get through it for my own good
=I did know there are 1000's of crypto exchanges?
Love you guy!
Bitcoin and S&P 500 are likely only more correlated because of Federal Reserves inflationary quantitative easing, which is both falsely inflating S&P 500 and is causing people to flee to Bitcoin…not because Bitcoin is necessarily locked in step with equities, in general. Although, because of reasons just given, I believe it will be correlated, in short-term.
Trump is to stuck as biden is to Crypto……
Everyone must read this news from Coinbase. They will support some coins listed here, and the most probable are: VeChain, Neo, Yfii, Ont.
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/81422/stablecoin-supply-has-surged-past-20-billion-driven-by-derivatives-market?utm_source=coinbase&utm_medium=rss
I need Biden to win so I can buy lots of BTC. Please God.
trump
well done on 100k subs mah mayn guy!
The majority of American polls are wrong and here's why: Going back to the early 1900s, private international banking interests have bought up nearly either directly or indirectly (such as in the case of parent companies owning subsidiaries), virtually every news outlet you've ever heard of (yes, this includes Vox, Buzzfeed, Vice etc). This is evidenced in part by going back to the 1918 Texas Congressional records where Representative Oscar Calloway stated in short, that JP Morgan and pals bought and paid for 25 of the nations leading newspapers in order to influence the opinions of the everyday American. Further study reveals that the banker ownership of press has only expanded since that time.
This point is important because, a deeper study of these banking behemoths will reveal that they have been instrumental in influencing the outcome of every American election since Woodrow Wilson. Through their influence in media the decide what news gets published, what spin gets put on each piece and so forth, in order to effectively "control" what Americans think, and about who.
This is in part the reason why Trump has received empirically the most negative press of any American President since the time of Wilson. If you'll remember, he was even hated by the Republican party during the primaries. As we all know however, he won despite incredible odds. The media was all against him, the democrats were against him, his own party was against him, we now know that even the FBI, Obama and others were actively working to ensure he didn't win the election.
As mentioned before, every election these international banking interests (through a closed door annual meeting called Bilderberg) formally determine who they want to win the Presidency. Traditionally they will tap both their Democrat and Republican selections (so either way, the winner is working for them). They did not tap Trump however. This can be evidenced by talking to any Bilderberg journalists, researchers, protesters etc who will all tell you there's never been any evidence of him coming or going to any of these events. The list is long of people who's political carrier suddenly skyrocketed after a visit to the meeting (Tony Blair, Bill Clinton etc), but you can study that up on your own.
The end result is, Trump managed to win despite their best efforts to steer Americans another direction. The reason why the polls show Biden having a win is because studies reveal that self identified Democrats are consistently less likely to vote when they feel like there is not much chance of winning the election. These elites understand that, therefore they use the media they own to sell Dems a message that says, "You're gonna win this fight so get out there and cast your vote as an early celebration of your certain victory!" with the understanding that it will result in a higher vote turn out, and consequently their candidate of choice winning (since, as in the case of 2016 and again in 2020 they only have one candidate instead of the usual two as they've been accustomed). This is also reflected in the wager markets because the people wagering are making their wagers based on what the international banking owned media tells them.
If they understood these connections and relationships, they see through these useless polls. Look to just about any poll taken that isn't owned and controlled by these banking interests and you'll see Trump having a clear national lead as well as a lead in the various swing states. And if you're in the wager markets on political propositions, don't bet big on Biden winning 2020 or you'll get REKT.
Thanks for attending my Ted Talk. Goodnight.
"Pandemic"
at 4:03.. i remember the pic of the guy holding up a framed picture but i dont recall what the picture was of. What was it originally again?
Out of interest do you bet/trade on sports Guy?
Brillant vid thankyou
Congrats on 100K from the midwest.
To see if a company is legit, look at their partners, Level01 has Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters
What about converting to stablecoins to position for scooping up the dips??
Very interesting view into how the upcoming US election might impact the crypto markets. I'm pretty sure you're right — and I definitely think that, if Biden wins, Trump will not leave office quietly and we'll see some of that instability you mentioned. Best to batten down the hatches for the next 3-6 months!
Fortunately, I tend to view my portfolio as primarily a longterm investment.
In the short term, I'm perfectly content with the idea that my portfolio might take a hit if it means we can remove an habitual liar/racist/fascist-wannabe (take your pick) from the White House before he can do more harm to our healthcare system, our judicial system, our individual rights, our contributions to global initiatives (like, you know, that little thing called the Paris Agreement), the US's standing in the world, etc, etc, etc.
And I utterly disagree with the assertion you often run across making declarations that liberal policies and governments are, by default, negative on global markets. A more left-leaning American government would ultimately mean more jobs, a much friendlier environment to post-secondary education (which can be quite expensive here in the States), a greater distribution of wealth, greater market stability (compare economic growth and stability under Obama & Clinton to that under the Bushes and Trump), and stronger social programs that could help buoy individuals and small businesses as the world adjusts to living with COVID-19. All good for the economy.
While all this might mean less corporate investment in the crypto markets for a short period, it also sounds to me like a perfect opportunity for new individual investors to dip their toes into the crypto world for the first time. Besides, any negative impact from the election would almost certainly be temporary — I mean, does anyone think that the overall crypto experience is moving in any direction other than up? And that it won't continue to do so for quite some time? And if certain currencies are overvalued, well…downward adjustments are healthy for the overall marketplace.
Here's an interesting – and immediately pre-pandemic – article from Fortune:
https://fortune.com/2019/11/01/trump-obama-markets-comparison-s-and-p-500-dow-nasdaq-economy/
After i scamed by some one i have a hate for all of you…….
Congratulations Guy
A huge milestone reached
Keep up the good work
How does the U.S hold such a high correlation to the crypto markets (which are 24/7 worldwide) US=330ish Million people. The same coins are traded all over the world .. places like China 1+Billion people and a major hub for Bitcoin miners.. So I still don't see why crypto is so strongly tied into the U.S & the S&P more than anything else in the world. How can it dictate where the markets are likely going when China is a way more dominating factor if its based on tech and population.
What to know about Covid. The actual science.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqZLMoLvhgk The most important is antiviral efficacy of Vitamin D. Effective treatment of Covid is priority than ghostvirus fighting halfmeasures. Until group immunity everyone can get it & it will be comming back seasonally. Natural immunity and vitamin deficiencies are crucial – this is the proactive approach – not the hiding tactics (with lockdown badly affecting our natural defenses).
Talking about Hydroxychloroquine we can't cherry pick. 99% of the studies weren't double blind randomized studies, also done in LATE STAGE without Zinc or with a letal dose of the medicine.
The rest shows it works
https://youtu.be/1plkwhi5KUE?list=PLRgTUN1zz_oeQpnJxpeaEkFimDeepqyWf&t=808
Empirical evidence shows it works: https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/07/02/michigan-henry-ford-health-study-finds-hydroxychloroquine-lowers-covid-19-death-rate/5365090002/
The big Henry Ford Health System study HXCQ vs Azithromycin here: https://www.ijidonline.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1201-9712%2820%2930534-8 Zero heart issues. 66% hazard reduction. Together 71% hazard reduction. And it was study without Zinc yet!
Why are they promoting the hellishly expensive Remdesivir?
Here it is exposed how Remdesivir doesn't work & has serious side effects while US guidelines makers completely ignored cheap Ivermectin true efficacy in favour of the worse option (they made no own studies in US or Europe and failed to notice big nr of studies from other countries).
About studies showing Ivermectin working well: https://youtu.be/aSJRyYf01H8?list=PLRgTUN1zz_oeQpnJxpeaEkFimDeepqyWf&t=501
The small spanish study: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030028962030288X?via%3Dihub
No side effects as pneumonia/cardiovuscular complications. only 9.6% needed oxygen vs 45.9%. Much lower mortality: 0.9% vs normal group with 6.8%. Ivermectin broad antiviral efficacy study: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4409/9/9/2100
Watch, read and tell me why COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines Panel chooses the obviously worse & more expensive medicine promoting Remdesivir which keeps mortality rate nearly the same? (i cd also mention the same blatant manipulations in France where more expensive med producer owner&promoter also bought medical journals to prop up their med now – fighting strongly against alternatives).
(38:00) why are they using the worse quality study on Hydroxychloroquine to disprove its efficacy?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uzXHnUViro Another studies proving HXCQ being effective – pure study data.
Belgian study https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920303423 8000+ ppl study + other studies
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7TWiweluwA About our crossimmunity thanks to other coronaviruses.
Watch how Fauci lies about scientific data, says the opposite to the study about crossimmunity cited by him & in general: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ulZNagmHJk
Forgot to mention that WHO ignored first data about epidemy believing China without checking & Fauci for years promoted the risky gain of function virus research in US and later in Wuhan China, knowing that viruses escaped in China & elsewhere in past. How can he be in charge of a pandemy taskforce? Crazy times. Zero logic.
In time like now we need to be 100% quality data driven. The whole medicine is based on probability and data measurements with a margin of error and became overrun by interests & now max politicized. Please dig always into both sides (manipulations are everywhere). Don't believe headlines without your own research. True authority is open for criticizm not closed teling you how to think. Be critical. Trust nobody without proof. Even me. Science changes everyday. Tell others and save lives!
are the Brits back in the white house?
This election is in the middle of a Plandemic and it is a good thing Trump will win or the US will become a Communist country.
Look at this photograph.. every time it makes me.. lol!
yes its going to the moon but will pull back to .01c first
Hi Guy, what are your views on Parsiq?